Personnel: 387,570
Air: 222 combat aircraft, 153 attack helicopters
Sea: Approximately 367,860 tons
Nuke estimate: Fewer than 160 deployed, 225 total
Britain’s military reputation is notable for its historic romanticism; Her Majesty’s exemplary Armed Forces with her past claims to the best navy in the world don’t quite capture the reality of global military power today, though. In truth, the Royal Navy is the fifth biggest, and the Royal Air Force—the oldest independent air force in the world—doesn’t place in the top ten. But the UK is still by most measures the second biggest Western military power at the moment (though some might argue for France), and their military spending ranked fourth worldwide in 2013. We had a tough time ourselves deciding whether France, Germany or Japan would have better chances in this virtual World War, but here’s why we settled with the UK:
According to the 2013 annual World Economic League Table report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research, the U.K. is on path to becoming the largest Western European economy ahead of Germany by around 2030. It’s conceivable that, by this time, the effects of the current EU debt crisis will have left most European economies trailing behind rising powers like India and Brazil, while the UK—retaining its independence from the Eurozone—remains insulated from long-term economic slowdown. With only about 2.5% of Britain’s GDP being currently spent on defense, there is feasibly much room for rapid militarization in the event of rising tensions. Close historical and ideological ties with the US doesn’t hurt, either.
4. India: $46.1 billion spent in 2013 2.5% of GDP
Personnel: 4,768,407
Air: 1080 combat planes; 140 attack helicopters
Sea: Approximately 317,725 tons
Nuke estimate: up to 100
India’s current military spending ranks only 8th worldwide, with France, Japan and even Saudi Arabia spending about $10 billion more in 2013. So what makes the former British colony such a promising candidate for future military supremacy, even more so than its colonial ancestor?
A 2007 report by investment bank Goldman Sachs found India’s accelerating growth could see its economy surpassing Britain within a decade; another report just last year by global information group ‘IHS Jane’s’ specifically predicts India’s military budget will overtake Britain’s by 2017, based on current trends. Indeed, the data shows Britain, though somewhat insulated from the Euro debt crisis, will see cuts where India sees boosts in long-term defense spending. India is poised to catch up—perhaps even surpass—Western military powers in the near future. Though not all currently active, India also has the second highest number of troops worldwide, largely from massive paramilitary groups who could potentially bolster the Indian Army in the event of global conflict.
3. The Russian Federation: $90.7 billion spent in 2013; 4.4% of GDP
Personnel: 3,250,000
Air: 1,900 combat aircraft; 1,655 attack helicopters
Sea: Approximately 845,730 tons
Nuke estimate: About 1,480 deployed, 4,502 total
Thanks in part to the accelerating activity of Russia, the third highest defense spender in the world, global military spending is now growing for the first time in five years. Like India, Russia’s budget appears to be doing the opposite of virtually all Western military budgets, including the United States’, and its recent surpassing of Britain is pretty strong evidence of the trend.
IHS Jane’s Annual Defense Budgets review predicts Russia’s military spending to grow by over 44% over the next three years, providing a much-desired revitalization of Russia’s military training and equipment. With already the second biggest navy and air force in the world, and the second biggest nuclear arsenal, few doubt Russia’s plans to remain a major military power for quite some time.
2. United States of America: $682 billion spent in in 2013, 4.4% of GDP
Personnel: 2,291,910
Air: 3,318 combat aircraft; 6,417 attack helicopters
Sea: Approximately 3,415,893 tons
Nuke estimate: Approximately 1654 deployed, 5,113 total
How can we possibly have more faith in any other military than the United States’? America’s finest are the very best, most technologically advanced and well-trained in the world, and we’ve all heard that nauseating statistic that the US spends more on its military than the next 10 superpowers combined. So why, why is America sitting at just second place?
Let’s play devil’s advocate and assume a third World War doesn’t happen until sometime at the end of the century, and then consider the following:
While the US spent an enormous $682 billion on defense in 2013, IHS Jane’s forecasts a 2014 budget of around $574.9 billion. While that’s still massive—reliably more than the next eight-or-so countries combined—a single-year drop of over $100 billion (twice the entire defense budget of the UK, give-or-take) is far from insignificant. Like Western Europe, America’s growing debt problems and increasingly unpopular defense spending appear to be causing some penny-pinching as of late; predictions showing a solid slashing by a near-sixth of its military spending.
1. China: $166 billion spent in 2013; 2% of GDP
Personnel: 7,054,000
Air: 1,500 combat aircraft; ? helicopters
Sea: Approximately 708,086 tons
Deployed nuke estimate: Maybe 240 total — data unreliable
China’s economic growth since the late 70s has been all but totally unprecedented; what’s more impressive than China’s sheer size today is the speed at which it got there, and there’s something to be said about that speed.
Despite being stunted by serious social problems and environmental issues, the Chinese government have demonstrated an admirable capacity to push through ongoing waves of economic and social reform. They’ve proven highly effective in developing the economy and improving the living standard of many Chinese citizens. For most analysts, the big question about China’s growing prominence is whether any underlying tensions will come to the fore; will the government lose control of its population if the government’s economic growth leaves more of the citizens behind?
In the way of military supremacy, how much do these questions matter? Some might say an unhappy population can’t coexist with a truly robust and competitive military; some might say the single-party government can’t retain legitimacy at all in the face of an increasingly globalized (even Westernized) world. But here’s what the data has to say:
- The 2013 World Economic League Table report predicts China’s Gross Domestic Product to surpass the United States’ in 2028. China currently spends only 2% of its GDP – versus America’s 4.4% – on military growth.
- A 2011 International Institute for Strategic Studies report found that given current spending trends, China will reach military equality, or parity, with the US in just 15-20 years. This was before China increased its spending to $166 billion last year.
And with the Chinese Communist Party managing the country behind closed doors, how much do we really know about the Chinese military? The full extent of their strength remains to be seen, but with the figures as they are it’s possible that China could defeat America if push came to shove in the realm of tenuous China-U.S. relations, in the event of international conflict.
Now that we’ve ranked the 5 future potential World War III competitors by their military trajectories, let’s consider a few more imminent ways a global conflict could arise in the 21st century…
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